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Mortgage Weather
A quick read on where mortgage rates have been recently
Updated: July 12, 2026  ·  Source: Freddie Mac PMMS
🌥
Cool
30-Year Fixed Rate
6.49%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Jul 9, 2026
vs. 3 months ago
↑ Up ~0.19 pts  ·  Rate was ~6.30% in Apr 2026
vs. 1 year ago
↓ Down ~0.23 pts  ·  Rate was 6.72% in Jul 2025
What we're seeing
  • Rates are near their highest point in 10 months, pushed up by a re-escalation of U.S./Iran tensions that has kept oil prices elevated and bond yields sticky — even as oil has recently pulled back from its peak.
  • The Federal Reserve has taken a hawkish turn, with multiple Fed officials signaling they're in no rush to cut rates while inflation stays above target. That's kept mortgage rates elevated independent of the oil story.
  • Year-over-year, conditions are modestly better — down about a quarter point from this time last year. But compared to where rates stood just a few months ago, the environment has clearly deteriorated. The picture is cool, not cold.
Latest market headlines
HousingWire
Why mortgage rates aren't falling even as oil prices ease
Three Federal Reserve officials issued hawkish signals in quick succession, making clear that inflation concerns — not just oil prices — are keeping rates elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.51%, and analysts say rates won't drop meaningfully until the Fed shifts tone or economic data softens.
housingwire.com ↗
Mortgage News Daily
Rates recover modestly after approaching 10-month highs
The 30-year fixed rate pulled back slightly to around 6.50% on July 9 after nearly hitting its worst level in nearly a year. The modest improvement was tied to oil prices dipping as Iran tensions showed early signs of stabilizing — but analysts called the improvement fragile and dependent on further war developments.
mortgagenewsdaily.com ↗
HousingWire
Mortgage applications slip 2.2% as rates tick higher into holiday week
MBA data for the week ending July 3 showed overall mortgage applications fell 2.2%, with refinance activity down 4% and purchase applications off 1%. The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.58% — though purchase demand remains about 5% above where it was a year ago on an unadjusted basis.
housingwire.com ↗

Informational only. Rate data sourced from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS). This is not a forecast or lending advice. Individual rates vary based on credit, loan type, and lender.

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Big Banks Don’t Tell You When Not to Refinance. We Do.

Most homeowners don’t refinance because they’re confused — not because they shouldn’t. Rates change. Programs change. Government policy changes.

Most lenders only call when it benefits them, not you. We built Refilytics to help NYC homeowners understand the market without being pushed into a bad deal.

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