The Fed Just Held Rates. Here's What It Actually Means for Your Mortgage.
Updated November 1, 2026
Every time the Fed makes a rate decision, the same question comes up: "Does this mean my mortgage rate is going up or down?" The answer is more complicated than most people think — because the Fed doesn't actually set mortgage rates.
What the Fed Controls vs. What Moves Your Mortgage Rate
This is the #1 thing people get wrong about the Fed and mortgage rates. Here's the difference:
Federal Funds Rate
This is the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. Currently 3.75–4.00%. It directly affects credit cards, HELOCs, auto loans, and savings accounts — anything with a variable rate tied to the prime rate.
Mortgage Rates
30-year fixed mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield, not the Fed rate. Treasury yields move based on inflation expectations, economic outlook, and global bond demand. That's why mortgage rates can go UP even when the Fed holds or cuts.
What Happened at the October Meeting
Here's what the Fed actually said:
Rates held at 3.75–4.00%
No change. This was widely expected. The Fed wants more data before making another move in either direction.
Two members wanted to hike
The vote was 10-2. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack both wanted a 25-basis-point increase. That dissent matters — it signals that another hike is still on the table if inflation doesn't cool.
"Inflation remains elevated"
That exact phrase is in the statement. The Fed is not done worrying about inflation. Until that language changes to something softer, rate cuts are not happening anytime soon.
Economy is "expanding at a strong pace"
Strong economy = less reason to cut rates. The Fed cuts when the economy is weakening. Right now, spending, productivity, and investment are all strong — which paradoxically means higher rates for longer.
Where Mortgage Rates Are Right Now
The good news: 7.24% is the lowest reading of October, down from 7.32% the week before. The bad news: we're still over a full point higher than last October's 6.17%.
What Should NYC Homeowners Do Right Now?
Waiting for rates to drop is not a strategy. Here's what actually makes sense depending on your situation:
If you have high-rate debt
A cash-out refi at 7.24% still beats credit card debt at 22%+. On $40K in credit card debt, that's roughly $480/month saved. The math still works even at these rates.
If you're self-employed
Bank statement loans and DSCR loans don't care about the Fed rate — they care about your deposits and your property's rental income. Non-QM lending is at $175B and growing. These products exist specifically for people who can't qualify the traditional way.
If you're on an ARM that's adjusting
Your rate is directly tied to the Fed's benchmark. With the Fed holding at 3.75–4.00% and possibly hiking in December, locking into a fixed rate now — even at 7.24% — could save you from a worse adjustment later.
If you're sitting tight
That's fine too — if your current rate is below 5%, there's no financial reason to refinance right now. Focus on paying down other debt and building equity. When rates eventually come down, you'll be in a stronger position.
What to Watch Next
The next FOMC meeting is in December. Here's what to keep an eye on:
- CPI reports — if inflation keeps running hot, a December hike becomes more likely
- 10-year Treasury yield — this is the real driver of mortgage rates, not the Fed rate
- Jobs data — a weakening labor market is the main thing that would push rates down
- Fed member speeches — the two dissenters wanted a hike; watch if more members start agreeing
We'll update the Mortgage Weather widget every week with the latest rate data and what it means for NYC homeowners.
Refilytics provides mortgage guidance for NYC homeowners across all five boroughs. This content is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice or a loan offer. Rate data sourced from Freddie Mac PMMS. FOMC decision data from the Federal Reserve.